Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Trail Blazers SAC @ POR

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

22-59  |  Road

110
FINAL
Sun, Apr 12 • 8:30 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

41-40  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
KINGS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Portland)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

8.1%

Trail Blazers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

SAC By 1-7 points

5.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

1.4%

POR By 1-7 points

16.9%

POR By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
108
SACRAMENTO
122
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
112
SACRAMENTO
121
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SAC @ POR 110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026 POR @ SAC 117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025 POR @ SAC 98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025 SAC @ POR 133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025 SAC @ POR 123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.5% more
Portland: 9.9 vs Sacramento: 8.7
Blocks (L5) +9.3% more
Portland: 6.2 vs Sacramento: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.4%
Portland: 75.6% vs Sacramento: 71.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Sacramento: 47.8% vs Portland: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 108.0 110
POR Score 122.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 35.1 35.0 / 33.0
Assists 25.1 / 24.8 28.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.2 / 5.7 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 47.8 47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 71.2 80.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 44.7 / 44.8 46.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.9 / 8.7 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.4 / 15.9 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
SAC
POR
SAC
ML
53% 56-49
55% 55-45
55% 49-40
61% 50-32
ATS
62% 65-39-1
54% 52-45-3
55% 49-40
61% 50-32
TTL
56% 58-46-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 89-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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