PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
44-37 | Road
135
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-17 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
198.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
PHX By 1-7 points
13.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
4.8%
OKC By 1-7 points
25.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
95
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
103
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Phoenix
113
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u213.5
Loss
Proj Total: 198.0
D
Sim
u213.5
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+43.5% more
Oklahoma City: 28.3
vs
Phoenix: 19.7
Steals (L5)
+36.9% more
Oklahoma City: 10.6
vs
Phoenix: 7.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.0%
Oklahoma City: 39.2%
vs
Phoenix: 29.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Oklahoma City: 50.1%
vs
Phoenix: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
95.0
135
OKC Score
103.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 29.3
39.0 / 49.0
Assists
28.3 / 19.7
32.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.5
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 42.0
43.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
80.0 / 74.8
33.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
45.6 / 43.0
36.0 / 54.0
Steals
10.6 / 7.8
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 16.8
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
70%
80-34
57%
60-45
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
59-43-3
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
TTL
67%
76-38
59%
61-42-2
100%
95-0
100%
88-0
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