ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
46-35 | Road
117
MIAMI
HEATMIA
42-39 | Home
143
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ATL By 1-7 points
10.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
3.3%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Miami
118
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u240.5
Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.1% more
Miami: 33.4
vs
Atlanta: 26.7
Turnovers (L5)
+14.7% more
Miami: 15.4
vs
Atlanta: 13.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Miami: 52.6%
vs
Atlanta: 47.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Miami: 42.9%
vs
Atlanta: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
108.0
117
MIA Score
118.0
143
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.9 / 38.1
41.0 / 39.0
Assists
33.4 / 26.7
34.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.3 / 5.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.6 / 47.8
56.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 73.2
71.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 45.1
45.0 / 46.0
Steals
5.1 / 9.9
11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 13.4
7.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
46-50
50%
52-52
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
55-48-1
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
57-39
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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