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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

7-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

10-3  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Alexander
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Alexander

#13 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Alexander None-None 1.13 -- 2.1 2
Alex Vesia None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.13 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
📊
DODGERS
100%
RANGERS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

69.1%

Dodgers Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.4%

LAD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TEXAS
2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 TEX @ LAD 5 - 2
Apr 11, 2026 TEX @ LAD 3 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 TEX @ LAD 7 - 8
Apr 20, 2025 LAD @ TEX 1 - 0
Apr 19, 2025 LAD @ TEX 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.713
OPS
▲ .762
183
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +74.6% more
Los Angeles: 2.3 vs Texas: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +64.7% more
Los Angeles: 19.9 vs Texas: 12.1
Hits (L5) +58.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.5 vs Texas: 7.3
Walks (L5) +28.3% more
Los Angeles: 3.6 vs Texas: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.0 3
LAD Score 2.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.5 / 7.3 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.2 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 19.9 / 12.1 16.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.8 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
TEX
LAD
TEX
ML
56% 92-73
53% 86-76
48% 79-87
57% 91-70
ATS
59% 98-67
57% 92-70
43% 72-94
61% 98-63
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 78-70-14
44% 70-90-6
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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