Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Cardinals BOS @ STL

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

4-9  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

8-5  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Whitlock None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 2
Matt Svanson None-None 15.58 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 Ldr ERA 15.58
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
RED SOX --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOSTON
3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 BOS @ STL 9 - 3
Apr 11, 2026 BOS @ STL 7 - 1
Apr 10, 2026 BOS @ STL 2 - 3
Apr 6, 2025 STL @ BOS 7 - 18
Apr 4, 2025 STL @ BOS 9 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.409
OPS
▲ .691
2
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8250.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +344.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8 vs Boston: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +39.6% more
St. Louis: 11.6 vs Boston: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.0 7
STL Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 6.2 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 8.3 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 8.3 8.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.5 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
BOS
STL
BOS
ML
53% 85-74
50% 80-80
52% 84-77
47% 76-87
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 93-67
53% 85-76
48% 79-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-5
50% 76-75-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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