Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Braves CLE @ ATL

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

8-6  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

9-5  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Erik Sabrowski
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Sabrowski

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Martin Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Martin Perez

#33 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Erik Sabrowski None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
Martin Perez None-None 3.14 -- 5.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.14
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
GUARDIANS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Braves Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CLEVELAND
3
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
7
CLEVELAND
3
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 CLE @ ATL 1 - 13
Apr 11, 2026 CLE @ ATL 6 - 0
Apr 10, 2026 CLE @ ATL 5 - 11
Aug 17, 2025 ATL @ CLE 5 - 4
Aug 16, 2025 ATL @ CLE 10 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.696
OPS
▲ .757
162 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +88.0% more
Atlanta: 1.8 vs Cleveland: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +34.5% more
Atlanta: 18.7 vs Cleveland: 13.9
Hits (L5) +22.7% more
Atlanta: 10.7 vs Cleveland: 8.7
Runs per Game (Season) +19.3% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 2.0 6
ATL Score 3.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 8.7 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 9.7 4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 18.7 / 13.9 8.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.6 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CLE
ATL
CLE
ML
46% 77-90
54% 87-74
54% 90-78
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 96-71
58% 93-68
52% 87-81
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 83-73-11
55% 88-71-2
49% 76-80-11
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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