Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Mets ATH @ NYM

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

6-7  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-7  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luis Medina
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Medina

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Medina None-None 1.69 -- 1.0 1
Kodai Senga None-None 7.07 -- 2.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
1.69 Ldr ERA 7.07
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
📊
METS
0%
ATHLETICS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATHLETICS
3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ATH @ NYM 1 - 0
Apr 11, 2026 ATH @ NYM 11 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 ATH @ NYM 4 - 0
Apr 13, 2025 NYM @ ATH 8 - 0
Apr 12, 2025 NYM @ ATH 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
4.31
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.719 ▲
OPS
.705
194
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
New York: 0.7 vs Athletics: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +16.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs Athletics: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +5.2% more
New York: 204.0 vs Athletics: 194.0
Strikeouts (L5) +27.2% more
Athletics: 9.7 vs New York: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 2.0 11
NYM Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 8.7 10.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.2 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 9.7 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 11.7 19.0 / 25.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.1 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATH
NYM
ATH
ML
50% 79-80
59% 95-67
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
52% 84-78
49% 78-81
50% 81-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
54% 84-73-5
51% 74-72-13
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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