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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

7-7  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 4:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

8-6  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Vaughn Grissom
STARTING PITCHER

Vaughn Grissom

#5 | First Base
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Vaughn Grissom None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 5.40 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.40
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
REDS
0%
ANGELS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
LOS ANGELES
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 LAA @ CIN 9 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 LAA @ CIN 3 - 7
Apr 10, 2026 LAA @ CIN 10 - 2
Aug 20, 2025 CIN @ LAA 1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025 CIN @ LAA 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.679
OPS
▲ .699
154
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +54.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +38.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Walks (L5) +12.8% more
Cincinnati: 5.3 vs Los Angeles: 4.7
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.5%
Cincinnati: 39.4% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.0 3
CIN Score 4.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 7.7 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 8.3 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 14.3 15.0 / 7.0
Walks 5.3 / 4.7 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LAA
CIN
LAA
ML
55% 88-71
59% 96-66
49% 79-81
55% 89-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-65
50% 80-80
51% 82-80
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 83-74-5
54% 83-72-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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