NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
8-5 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
6-7 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 4.50
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
RAYS
0%
YANKEES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041
▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+64.5% more
Tampa Bay: 7.6
vs
New York: 4.6
Errors (L5)
+53.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.4
vs
New York: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+37.5% more
Tampa Bay: 11.1
vs
New York: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
2.0
4
TB Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 4.6
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.9
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 8.1
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.2
7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58%
95-68
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
95-66
55%
90-73
53%
86-76
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-72-7
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