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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

48-25-6  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 12:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

43-26-10  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.952 --
Jeremy Swayman None-None 2.05 0.917 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 2.05
0.952 Ldr Save % 0.917
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
BRUINS
100%
LIGHTNING --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 BruinsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Bruins Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BOS +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

BOS By 1 goal

12.1%

BOS By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
BOSTON
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 TB @ BOS 2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 3
Feb 1, 2026 BOS @ TB 5 - 6
Oct 13, 2025 TB @ BOS 4 - 3
Mar 15, 2025 TB @ BOS 6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +32.3% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Boston: 22.5
Power Play % (L5) +30.0%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Boston: 1.5%
Takeaways (L5) +25.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.4 vs Boston: 3.3
Hits (L5) +19.3% more
Tampa Bay: 22.9 vs Boston: 18.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 2
BOS Score 2.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
44%MONEY56%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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