Home / NHL Projections NHL / Capitals @ Penguins WSH @ PIT

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

40-30-9  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 3:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

41-22-16  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 3.00 0.727 --
Arturs Silovs None-None 5.08 0.839 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.00 Ldr GAA 5.08
0.727 Save % Ldr 0.839
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
CAPITALS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

15.9%

Penguins Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

WSH By 1 goal

6.6%

WSH By 2-3 goals

3.7%

PIT By 1 goal

17.5%

PIT By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 PIT @ WSH 3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026 PIT @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ PIT 6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025 WSH @ PIT 3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025 WSH @ PIT 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +42.0% more
Washington: 19.1 vs Pittsburgh: 11.0
Blocked Shots (L5) +33.6% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Takeaways (L5) +26.6% more
Washington: 6.3 vs Pittsburgh: 4.6
Power Play % (L5) +11.4%
Washington: 13.9% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 6
PIT Score 5.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
88%MONEY12%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
ATS
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
si 58 minutes ago
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
headtopics 13 hours, 26 minutes ago
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
local10 19 hours, 6 minutes ago
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
yahoo 19 hours, 23 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day ago