Home / NHL Projections NHL / Senators @ Islanders OTT @ NYI

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

42-27-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 1:00 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

43-31-5  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
@
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Linus Ullmark None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Ilya Sorokin None-None 2.11 0.867 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 2.11
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.867
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
📊
ISLANDERS
100%
SENATORS --
ISLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Ottawa)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

84.1%

Islanders Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

OTT By 1 goal

17.5%

OTT By 2-3 goals

37.2%

NYI By 1 goal

6.6%

NYI By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
OTTAWA
1
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
2
OTTAWA
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Senators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Islanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Senators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Islanders (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 OTT @ NYI 3 - 0
Mar 19, 2026 NYI @ OTT 2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025 NYI @ OTT 5 - 4
Jan 14, 2025 OTT @ NYI 2 - 0
Dec 8, 2024 NYI @ OTT 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +59.9%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs New York: 3.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 3.0 3
NYI Score 1.0 0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
28%MONEY72%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
OTT
NYI
OTT
ML
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 2-0-1
67% 2-1
100% 2-0-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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