Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Lakers PHX @ LAL

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

44-36  |  Road

73
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

51-29  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
SUNS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Los Angeles)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

11.5%

Lakers Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

PHX By 1-7 points

8.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

2.2%

LAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
107
PHOENIX
119
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
114
PHOENIX
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o216.5 Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim u216.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHX @ LAL 73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026 LAL @ PHX 110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025 LAL @ PHX 108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025 LAL @ PHX 116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025 PHX @ LAL 125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +44.9% more
Los Angeles: 30.5 vs Phoenix: 21.0
Steals (L5) +26.5% more
Los Angeles: 9.7 vs Phoenix: 7.7
Turnovers (L5) +19.5% more
Los Angeles: 16.3 vs Phoenix: 13.7
Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Los Angeles: 52.7% vs Phoenix: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 107.0 73
LAL Score 119.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 35.4 40.0 / 17.0
Assists 30.5 / 21.0 27.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.4 / 6.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 46.0 51.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 78.7 77.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 41.0 35.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.7 / 7.7 17.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 16.3 / 13.7 11.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
PHX
LAL
PHX
ML
61% 68-43
57% 60-45
54% 49-42
51% 45-43
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 59-43-3
54% 49-42
51% 45-43
TTL
61% 66-43-2
59% 61-42-2
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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