Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Nuggets OKC @ DEN

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-16  |  Road

107
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

52-28  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

86.4%

Nuggets Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

21.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.4%

DEN By 1-7 points

9.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
122
OKLAHOMA CITY
111
DENVER
Simulated Score
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o223.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
Oklahoma City: 10.5 vs Denver: 7.1
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Oklahoma City: 13.2 vs Denver: 11.3
Blocks (L5) +13.8% more
Oklahoma City: 5.4 vs Denver: 4.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Oklahoma City: 42.8% vs Denver: 39.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 122.0 107
DEN Score 111.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 42.8 49.0 / 32.0
Assists 33.1 / 29.9 28.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.4 6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 53.0 / 54.2 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 82.4 92.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 47.9 / 45.4 49.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.1 / 10.5 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 13.2 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
OKC
DEN
OKC
ML
54% 57-48
70% 80-34
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38-2
73% 83-30-1
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 56-48-1
67% 76-38
100% 86-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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