NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
26-54 | Road
118
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
54-26 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
CELTICS
0%
PELICANS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
NO By 1-7 points
20.1%
NO By 8-14 points
9.3%
BOS By 1-7 points
27.4%
BOS By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
120
NEW ORLEANS
Boston
124
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New Orleans
112
NEW ORLEANS
Boston
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
NO @ BOS
118 - 144
Oct 27, 2025
BOS @ NO
122 - 90
Jan 31, 2025
BOS @ NO
118 - 116
Jan 12, 2025
NO @ BOS
119 - 120
Mar 30, 2024
BOS @ NO
104 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+53.1% more
New Orleans: 5.8
vs
Boston: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+44.8% more
New Orleans: 10.6
vs
Boston: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+17.3% more
New Orleans: 15.2
vs
Boston: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
120.0
118
BOS Score
124.0
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 37.1
49.0 / 28.0
Assists
24.6 / 25.3
35.0 / 22.0
Blocks
2.7 / 5.8
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 49.1
54.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
82.9 / 82.0
73.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
44.6 / 44.0
44.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.9 / 10.6
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.2
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NO
BOS
NO
ML
57%
61-46
62%
98-61
53%
47-41
58%
48-35
ATS
59%
61-43-3
68%
107-51-1
53%
47-41
58%
48-35
TTL
56%
60-47
75%
119-40
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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