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MIAMI

HEATMIA

41-39  |  Road

140
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

17-63  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
HEAT --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

18.4%

Wizards Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MIA By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

26.8%

WSH By 1-7 points

12.2%

WSH By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
122
MIAMI
113
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
100
MIAMI
110
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u243.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u243.5 Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MIA @ WSH 140 - 117
Apr 4, 2026 WSH @ MIA 136 - 152
Mar 10, 2026 WSH @ MIA 129 - 150
Feb 8, 2026 MIA @ WSH 132 - 101
Apr 13, 2025 WSH @ MIA 119 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.7% more
Miami: 31.7 vs Washington: 23.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Miami: 37.3% vs Washington: 31.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Miami: 48.9% vs Washington: 45.2%
Steals (L5) +164.9% more
Washington: 9.7 vs Miami: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 122.0 140
WSH Score 113.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 37.3 45.0 / 54.0
Assists 23.8 / 31.7 26.0 / 37.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.5 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 48.9 50.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 73.4 79.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 45.0 / 41.3 27.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.7 / 3.7 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 18.1 / 13.6 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
70% 112-49
48% 46-50
47% 39-44
59% 48-34
ATS
69% 111-49-1
51% 49-47
47% 39-44
59% 48-34
TTL
74% 119-41-1
59% 57-39
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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