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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

4-8  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

7-5  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jovani Moran
STARTING PITCHER

Jovani Moran

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jovani Moran None-None 2.25 -- 1.0 2
Riley O'Brien None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.25 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
RED SOX --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BOSTON
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 BOS @ STL 9 - 3
Apr 11, 2026 BOS @ STL 7 - 1
Apr 10, 2026 BOS @ STL 2 - 3
Apr 6, 2025 STL @ BOS 7 - 18
Apr 4, 2025 STL @ BOS 9 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.409
OPS
▲ .691
2
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8250.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +344.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +87.0% more
St. Louis: 1.2 vs Boston: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +31.1% more
St. Louis: 12.4 vs Boston: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.0 2
STL Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 6.8 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 8.0 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 9.5 10.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.8 0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
BOS
STL
BOS
ML
53% 85-74
50% 80-80
52% 84-77
47% 76-87
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 93-67
53% 85-76
48% 79-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-5
50% 76-75-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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