CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
8-5 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
8-5 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 8.10 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.35 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.10
ERA
Ldr 1.35
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
BRAVES
0%
GUARDIANS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
2
CLEVELAND
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
CLE @ ATL
1 - 13
Apr 11, 2026
CLE @ ATL
6 - 0
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
5 - 11
Aug 17, 2025
ATL @ CLE
5 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
ATL @ CLE
10 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.696
OPS
▲
.757
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+31.0% more
Atlanta: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+19.3% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+6.1%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.3%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
2.0
5
ATL Score
3.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.1
15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 12.0
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 14.8
26.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.8
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CLE
ATL
CLE
ML
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-68
52%
87-81
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
88-71-2
49%
76-80-11
43%
69-90-2
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