NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
8-4 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
5-7 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
1.80
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
RAYS
0%
YANKEES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041
▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+79.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6
vs
New York: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+60.1% more
Tampa Bay: 3.6
vs
New York: 2.2
Hits (L5)
+55.9% more
Tampa Bay: 6.8
vs
New York: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
3.0
3
TB Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 4.4
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.4
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 7.1
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.2
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58%
95-68
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
95-66
55%
90-73
53%
86-76
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-72-7
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …