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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

7-6  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

5-7  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Tommy Nance
STARTING PITCHER

Tommy Nance

#35 | Relief Pitcher
@
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tommy Nance None-None 7.50 -- 0.2 1
Braydon Fisher None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
7.50 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
📊
BLUE JAYS
100%
TWINS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Blue Jays Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MINNESOTA
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 TOR @ MIN 3 - 4
May 2, 2026 TOR @ MIN 11 - 4
May 1, 2026 TOR @ MIN 7 - 3
Apr 30, 2026 TOR @ MIN 1 - 7
Apr 12, 2026 MIN @ TOR 8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720 ▲
OPS
.692
187 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +42.0% more
Minnesota: 0.6 vs Toronto: 0.2
Hits (L5) +22.9% more
Minnesota: 8.9 vs Toronto: 6.9
Total Bases (L5) +21.2% more
Minnesota: 12.0 vs Toronto: 9.5
Home Runs (Season) +18.7% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.0 4
TOR Score 2.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.9 14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.6 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 8.7 12.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 9.5 / 12.0 27.0 / 14.0
Walks 5.2 / 3.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
46% 74-87
52% 84-78
50% 80-80
50% 80-81
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
59% 95-66
TTL
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-9
45% 70-85-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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