Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Mets ATH @ NYM

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

5-7  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-6  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Carson Benge
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Benge

#3 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elvis Alvarado None-None 6.43 -- 1.0 1
Carson Benge None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
6.43 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
📊
METS
0%
ATHLETICS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATHLETICS
3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ATH @ NYM 1 - 0
Apr 11, 2026 ATH @ NYM 11 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 ATH @ NYM 4 - 0
Apr 13, 2025 NYM @ ATH 8 - 0
Apr 12, 2025 NYM @ ATH 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
4.31
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.719 ▲
OPS
.705
194
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +23.0% more
New York: 0.6 vs Athletics: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +5.2% more
New York: 204.0 vs Athletics: 194.0
Walks (L5) +45.0% more
Athletics: 5.7 vs New York: 3.1
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Athletics: 0.7 vs New York: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 2.0 4
NYM Score 3.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.6 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.5 4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 12.1 6.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.1 / 5.7 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATH
NYM
ATH
ML
50% 79-80
59% 95-67
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
52% 84-78
49% 78-81
50% 81-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
54% 84-73-5
51% 74-72-13
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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