ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
7-6 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
6-6 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
9.00
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.720
OPS
▲
.724
166
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+26.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.4
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.9% more
Philadelphia: 8.0
vs
Arizona: 6.5
Errors (L5)
+13.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.9
vs
Arizona: 0.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.0
5
PHI Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 8.3
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.5
10.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
8.7 / 13.3
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
1.4 / 2.4
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ARI
PHI
ARI
ML
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
54%
86-74
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
56%
89-71
TTL
57%
88-67-9
52%
80-73-8
51%
78-76-9
49%
73-77-9
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