MIAMI
HEATMIA
41-38 | Road
114
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
44-35 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
RAPTORS
0%
HEAT
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIA By 1-7 points
12.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
4.0%
TOR By 1-7 points
24.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
111
MIAMI
Toronto
120
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
Toronto
110
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 9, 2026
MIA @ TOR
114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026
MIA @ TOR
95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025
TOR @ MIA
106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025
MIA @ TOR
120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+83.6% more
Toronto: 9.2
vs
Miami: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+10.1% more
Toronto: 33.0
vs
Miami: 30.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Toronto: 50.3%
vs
Miami: 45.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Toronto: 40.2%
vs
Miami: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
111.0
114
TOR Score
120.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.2 / 35.9
43.0 / 40.0
Assists
33.0 / 30.0
24.0 / 35.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.2
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 45.4
51.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
70.4 / 81.6
79.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
44.2 / 45.0
40.0 / 34.0
Steals
9.2 / 5.0
9.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 12.9
6.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIA
TOR
MIA
ML
55%
57-47
48%
46-50
55%
48-39
59%
48-34
ATS
61%
62-40-2
51%
49-47
55%
48-39
59%
48-34
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
57-39
100%
87-0
100%
82-0
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