CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
4-8 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
5-7 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 1.42 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Seth Lugo | None-None | 1.53 | -- | 6.1 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.42 Ldr
ERA
1.53
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
100%
ROYALS
0%
WHITE SOX
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
10.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CHW @ KC
9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
CHW @ KC
4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026
CHW @ KC
14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026
KC @ CHW
5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026
KC @ CHW
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Kansas City
KC
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16900.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+54.0% more
Kansas City: 0.8
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+10.9% more
Kansas City: 9.8
vs
Chicago: 8.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+29.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.0
2
KC Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 6.5
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.5
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
9.8 / 8.8
6.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.3 / 4.6
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHW
KC
CHW
ML
55%
89-72
48%
81-87
56%
90-70
56%
94-74
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
99-69
58%
93-67
55%
93-75
TTL
58%
90-64-7
58%
97-69-2
54%
83-70-7
51%
85-81-2
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox