Home / NHL Projections NHL / Wild @ Stars MIN @ DAL

MINNESOTA

WILDMIN

45-21-12  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Apr 9 • 9:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

46-20-12  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Filip Gustavsson
GOALTENDER

Filip Gustavsson

#32 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Filip Gustavsson None-None 5.15 0.750 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 4.00 0.871 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.15 GAA Ldr 4.00
0.750 Save % Ldr 0.871
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
100%
📊
STARS
0%
WILD --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
WildMIN (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wild Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

MIN By 1 goal

12.1%

MIN By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MINNESOTA
3
DALLAS
Simulated Score
2
MINNESOTA
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 DAL @ MIN 2 - 5
Apr 28, 2026 MIN @ DAL 4 - 2
Apr 25, 2026 DAL @ MIN 2 - 3
Apr 22, 2026 DAL @ MIN 4 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 MIN @ DAL 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +22.7% more
Dallas: 16.1 vs Minnesota: 13.1
Faceoff % (L5) +2.1%
Dallas: 49.3% vs Minnesota: 47.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +20.7% more
Minnesota: 37.7 vs Dallas: 29.9
Takeaways (L5) +13.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Dallas: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 2.0 4
DAL Score 3.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
19%MONEY81%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIN
DAL
MIN
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
si 59 minutes ago
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
yardbarker 7 hours, 10 minutes ago
Juszczyk Wins Appeal, Padres Stay Alive, Messi Bids Farewell in …
rutlandherald 1 day, 6 hours ago
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
Bryan Baker's Dominance Out of Bullpen Puts Rays One Win from AL…
si 1 day, 12 hours ago