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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

25-54  |  Road

107
FINAL
Wed, Apr 8 • 10:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

43-36  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
MAVERICKS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Phoenix)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Suns Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

DAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

PHX By 1-7 points

26.2%

PHX By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
111
DALLAS
112
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
114
DALLAS
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 DAL @ PHX 107 - 112
Feb 10, 2026 DAL @ PHX 111 - 120
Nov 12, 2025 PHX @ DAL 123 - 114
Mar 9, 2025 PHX @ DAL 125 - 116
Dec 27, 2024 DAL @ PHX 98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.5% more
Phoenix: 15.5 vs Dallas: 10.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Phoenix: 45.9% vs Dallas: 42.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Phoenix: 33.1% vs Dallas: 29.6%
Rebounding (L5) +16.7% more
Dallas: 46.1 vs Phoenix: 38.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 111.0 107
PHX Score 112.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 29.6 40.0 / 36.0
Assists 21.5 / 22.6 20.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.5 / 5.4 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 42.1 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 83.3 82.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 46.1 46.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.0 / 9.5 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 10.7 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DAL
PHX
DAL
ML
57% 60-45
62% 63-39
51% 45-43
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 59-43-3
67% 68-34
51% 45-43
54% 44-37
TTL
59% 61-42-2
59% 60-41-1
100% 88-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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