MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
25-54 | Road
119
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
51-28 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
NUGGETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
MEM By 1-7 points
15.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
5.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Denver
122
DENVER
Simulated Score
Memphis
105
MEMPHIS
Denver
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+23.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u247.5
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u247.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MEM @ DEN
119 - 136
Mar 18, 2026
DEN @ MEM
118 - 125
Feb 11, 2026
MEM @ DEN
116 - 122
Nov 24, 2025
DEN @ MEM
125 - 115
Apr 11, 2025
MEM @ DEN
109 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.1% more
Denver: 4.5
vs
Memphis: 3.2
Rebounding (L5)
+37.3% more
Denver: 45.8
vs
Memphis: 33.4
Assists (L5)
+30.2% more
Denver: 34.2
vs
Memphis: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.6%
Denver: 85.7%
vs
Memphis: 75.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
115.0
119
DEN Score
122.0
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 39.6
39.0 / 38.0
Assists
34.2 / 26.2
31.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.5 / 3.2
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 45.3
59.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
85.7 / 75.2
76.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
45.8 / 33.4
52.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.7 / 9.0
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 15.1
12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MEM
DEN
MEM
ML
54%
57-48
57%
59-44
55%
47-39
50%
41-41
ATS
63%
65-38-2
63%
65-38
55%
47-39
50%
41-41
TTL
54%
56-48-1
70%
71-31-1
100%
86-0
100%
82-0
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