ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
45-34 | Road
116
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
50-29 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
HAWKS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
ATL By 1-7 points
21.6%
ATL By 8-14 points
10.7%
CLE By 1-7 points
27.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
116
ATLANTA
Cleveland
119
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Cleveland
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
102 - 124
Apr 8, 2026
ATL @ CLE
116 - 122
Nov 28, 2025
CLE @ ATL
123 - 130
Nov 2, 2025
ATL @ CLE
109 - 117
Jan 30, 2025
ATL @ CLE
115 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Cleveland: 52.3%
vs
Atlanta: 47.6%
Blocks (L5)
+25.1% more
Atlanta: 5.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+10.5% more
Atlanta: 13.9
vs
Cleveland: 12.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Atlanta: 41.3%
vs
Cleveland: 36.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
116.0
116
CLE Score
119.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 41.3
36.0 / 35.0
Assists
30.6 / 28.4
22.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.1 / 5.5
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
52.3 / 47.6
47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 77.2
80.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
45.5 / 45.4
47.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.8 / 9.3
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 13.9
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATL
CLE
ATL
ML
60%
69-46
50%
52-52
56%
55-44
55%
48-40
ATS
67%
75-37-3
53%
55-48-1
56%
55-44
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
68-47
53%
55-48-1
100%
99-0
100%
88-0
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