PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
40-39 | Road
101
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
60-19 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
POR By 1-7 points
12.2%
POR By 8-14 points
4.0%
SA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
116
PORTLAND
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Portland
105
PORTLAND
San Antonio
110
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.5
Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 28, 2026
POR @ SA
95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026
SA @ POR
114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026
SA @ POR
120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
POR @ SA
106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026
POR @ SA
98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
San Antonio: 31.1
vs
Portland: 26.2
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
San Antonio: 48.9
vs
Portland: 44.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
San Antonio: 49.4%
vs
Portland: 46.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+29.4% more
Portland: 17.6
vs
San Antonio: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
116.0
101
SA Score
125.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 39.9
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
31.1 / 26.2
28.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.9 / 6.2
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 46.7
49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
80.7 / 80.6
79.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
48.9 / 44.6
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.3 / 8.8
13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 17.6
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
POR
SA
POR
ML
60%
111-73
53%
56-49
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
107-76-1
62%
65-39-1
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
TTL
74%
134-47-3
56%
58-46-1
100%
105-0
100%
89-0
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