ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
3-7 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
8-2 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 7.50 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| David Bednar | None-None | 4.26 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.50
ERA
Ldr 4.26
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
YANKEES
0%
ATHLETICS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
ATH By 1-2 runs
10.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
5.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 31, 2026
NYY @ ATH
13 - 8
May 30, 2026
NYY @ ATH
4 - 6
May 29, 2026
NYY @ ATH
8 - 2
Apr 9, 2026
ATH @ NYY
1 - 0
Apr 8, 2026
ATH @ NYY
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.719
OPS
▲
1.041
194
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+108.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (L5)
+62.0% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Athletics: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.8% more
New York: 10.6
vs
Athletics: 7.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.2%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Athletics: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
2.0
3
NYY Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.8
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 7.9
9.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 13.5
4.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 7.1
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
ATH
NYY
ATH
ML
47%
76-85
59%
95-67
52%
85-77
54%
87-74
ATS
59%
95-66
52%
84-78
53%
86-76
50%
81-80
TTL
53%
81-73-7
54%
84-73-5
53%
82-72-7
42%
66-90-5
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