CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
8-3 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
6-5 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pierce Johnson
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierce Johnson | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
MARLINS
100%
REDS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Miami
2
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.699
OPS
▲
.727
213
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+27.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6
vs
Miami: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+21.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5)
+57.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
Cincinnati: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+38.8% more
Miami: 5.7
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.0
4
MIA Score
2.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.1 / 6.8
12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.4
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 9.8
19.0 / 14.0
Walks
5.7 / 4.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CIN
MIA
CIN
ML
48%
78-84
55%
88-71
55%
88-72
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
86-73
54%
86-74
50%
80-80
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
81-73-5
53%
82-73-5
54%
83-72-5
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