Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Nationals STL @ WSH

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

6-5  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Apr 8 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

4-7  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Miles Mikolas None-None 12.41 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 12.41
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
CARDINALS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ST. LOUIS
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ STL 3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 WSH @ STL 8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026 WSH @ STL 9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026 STL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026 STL @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.691
OPS
▲ .744
167
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +44.7% more
Washington: 1.9 vs St. Louis: 1.3
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
Washington: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +32.4% more
Washington: 17.3 vs St. Louis: 13.1
Walks (L5) +29.7% more
Washington: 6.7 vs St. Louis: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 5.0 6
WSH Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 7.7 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.3 9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 17.3 / 13.1 4.0 / 11.0
Walks 6.7 / 5.2 7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
STL
WSH
STL
ML
57% 92-69
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
TTL
50% 77-78-6
46% 68-81-10
42% 65-90-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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