Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Pelicans UTAH @ NO

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

21-58  |  Road

137
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

25-54  |  Home

156
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
JAZZ --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (New Orleans)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

21.2%

Pelicans Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

UTAH By 1-7 points

13.7%

UTAH By 8-14 points

4.8%

NO By 1-7 points

25.3%

NO By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
108
UTAH
116
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
113
UTAH
122
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.5 Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 UTAH @ NO 137 - 156
Feb 28, 2026 NO @ UTAH 115 - 105
Feb 26, 2026 NO @ UTAH 129 - 118
Mar 2, 2025 NO @ UTAH 128 - 121
Jan 20, 2025 UTAH @ NO 119 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.5% more
New Orleans: 6.2 vs Utah: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
New Orleans: 79.5% vs Utah: 70.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
New Orleans: 35.2% vs Utah: 32.8%
Assists (L5) +22.9% more
Utah: 28.5 vs New Orleans: 22.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 108.0 137
NO Score 116.0 156
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 32.8 41.0 / 31.0
Assists 22.0 / 28.5 32.0 / 38.0
Blocks 6.2 / 3.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 45.5 58.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 70.4 87.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 43.0 48.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.4 / 9.0 15.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 14.2 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
UTAH
NO
UTAH
ML
62% 98-61
60% 96-63
58% 48-35
48% 40-43
ATS
68% 107-51-1
68% 108-51
58% 48-35
48% 40-43
TTL
75% 119-40
75% 119-39-1
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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