HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
6-5 | Road
1
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
4-6 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kai-Wei Teng
#17 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai-Wei Teng | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 6.1 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.84
ERA
Ldr 2.30
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
ROCKIES
0%
ASTROS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.6%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
2
HOUSTON
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
COL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
COL @ HOU
1 - 3
Apr 14, 2026
COL @ HOU
6 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 9
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.582
OPS
▲
.739
4
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4400.0% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+54.7% more
Colorado: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+15.7%
Colorado: 73.9%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+9.3%
Colorado: 32.2%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
2.0
1
COL Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 11.9
10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.3
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 20.8
16.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.7 / 5.2
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
HOU
COL
HOU
ML
60%
97-64
50%
81-82
55%
88-73
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
91-72
52%
83-78
55%
90-74
TTL
60%
93-62-6
45%
70-84-9
50%
77-78-6
45%
69-86-9
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