CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
7-3 | Road
6
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
6-4 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
John King
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 6.14 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| John King | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.14
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
MARLINS
100%
REDS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Miami
2
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.699
OPS
▲
.727
213
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+40.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+21.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.2% more
Cincinnati: 9.1
vs
Miami: 7.9
Errors (L5)
+86.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
Cincinnati: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.0
6
MIA Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.1 / 7.6
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.1
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 11.2
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
5.5 / 3.1
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CIN
MIA
CIN
ML
48%
78-84
55%
88-71
55%
88-72
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
86-73
54%
86-74
50%
80-80
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
81-73-5
53%
82-73-5
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
Padres Reinforce Bullpen as Mason Miller Rejoins for NLDS Game 4