MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
8-2 | Road
2
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
2-8 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Misiorowski
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | None-None | 3.31 | -- | 5.1 | 10 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.31
ERA
Ldr 1.80
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
RED SOX
0%
BREWERS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Boston
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MIL @ BOS
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
MIL @ BOS
2 - 3
Apr 6, 2026
MIL @ BOS
8 - 6
May 28, 2025
BOS @ MIL
5 - 6
May 27, 2025
BOS @ MIL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.743
▲
OPS
.409
154
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+117.0% more
Boston: 1.5
vs
Milwaukee: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+31.3% more
Boston: 4.8
vs
Milwaukee: 3.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.0% more
Boston: 8.8
vs
Milwaukee: 8.0
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.0
2
BOS Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.7
3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 8.0
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 15.2
4.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.7
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIL
BOS
MIL
ML
50%
80-80
62%
101-61
47%
76-87
52%
84-78
ATS
58%
93-67
58%
94-68
48%
79-84
48%
78-84
TTL
46%
72-83-5
40%
62-92-8
47%
74-83-6
50%
77-77-8
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