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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

6-4  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

3-8  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 18.00 -- 1.0 --
Keaton Winn None-None 5.06 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
18.00 ERA Ldr 5.06
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
GIANTS
100%
PHILLIES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
2
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 SF @ PHI 2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 SF @ PHI 0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026 PHI @ SF 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724 ▲
OPS
.706
3
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +24.2% more
Philadelphia: 14.1 vs San Francisco: 10.7
Strikeouts (L5) +19.6% more
Philadelphia: 9.6 vs San Francisco: 7.7
Hits (L5) +10.6% more
Philadelphia: 9.0 vs San Francisco: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.0 0
SF Score 2.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.0 / 9.0 12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.6 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 14.1 18.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.0 / 1.8 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PHI
SF
PHI
ML
49% 79-81
59% 97-67
53% 85-75
49% 80-84
ATS
62% 100-60
65% 107-57
52% 83-77
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 82-68-10
57% 88-67-9
46% 68-81-11
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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