HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
49-29 | Road
119
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
43-35 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
SUNS
100%
ROCKETS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
12.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
23.0%
PHX By 1-7 points
3.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
135
HOUSTON
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Phoenix
114
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Win
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ PHX
119 - 105
Jan 5, 2026
PHX @ HOU
97 - 100
Dec 5, 2025
PHX @ HOU
98 - 117
Nov 24, 2025
HOU @ PHX
114 - 92
Mar 30, 2025
HOU @ PHX
148 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
Houston: 30.5
vs
Phoenix: 24.8
Blocks (L5)
+13.7% more
Houston: 6.0
vs
Phoenix: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.0%
Houston: 81.0%
vs
Phoenix: 72.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Houston: 43.3%
vs
Phoenix: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
135.0
119
PHX Score
118.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 43.3
23.0 / 37.0
Assists
24.8 / 30.5
15.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.2 / 6.0
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 52.2
43.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
72.0 / 81.0
87.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 43.4
34.0 / 55.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.4
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 12.0
18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
HOU
PHX
HOU
ML
57%
60-45
61%
69-44
51%
45-43
59%
51-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
62%
70-43
51%
45-43
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…