Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Lakers OKC @ LAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

62-16  |  Road

123
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

50-28  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
THUNDER --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

3.6%

Lakers Cover

96.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL +18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

OKC By 1-7 points

10.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

21.6%

LAL By 1-7 points

2.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
133
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: +18.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o220.5 Loss
Proj Total: 248.0
D
Sim u220.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.8% more
Oklahoma City: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Steals (L5) +16.3% more
Oklahoma City: 9.3 vs Los Angeles: 7.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.7%
Oklahoma City: 42.4% vs Los Angeles: 31.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Oklahoma City: 83.2% vs Los Angeles: 79.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 133.0 123
LAL Score 115.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 42.4 35.0 / 51.0
Assists 27.8 / 30.2 26.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.0 / 6.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 52.9 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 83.2 45.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 46.1 38.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.8 / 9.3 7.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 13.9 17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
OKC
LAL
OKC
ML
61% 68-43
70% 80-34
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
ATS
61% 67-43-1
73% 83-30-1
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
TTL
61% 66-43-2
67% 76-38
100% 91-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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