MIAMI
HEATMIA
41-37 | Road
95
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
43-35 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
RAPTORS
100%
HEAT
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
20.1%
TOR By 1-7 points
21.6%
TOR By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
110
MIAMI
Toronto
107
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Miami
107
MIAMI
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u243.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim
u243.5
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 9, 2026
MIA @ TOR
114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026
MIA @ TOR
95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025
TOR @ MIA
106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025
MIA @ TOR
120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.4% more
Miami: 6.3
vs
Toronto: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+15.7% more
Miami: 45.4
vs
Toronto: 38.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Miami: 77.9%
vs
Toronto: 71.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Miami: 40.4%
vs
Toronto: 38.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
110.0
95
TOR Score
107.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 40.4
43.0 / 27.0
Assists
32.5 / 32.0
34.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.8 / 6.3
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 50.1
49.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 77.9
69.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 45.4
56.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.3 / 6.0
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 11.8
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIA
TOR
MIA
ML
55%
57-47
48%
46-50
55%
48-39
59%
48-34
ATS
61%
62-40-2
51%
49-47
55%
48-39
59%
48-34
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
57-39
100%
87-0
100%
82-0
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