Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Senators TB @ OTT

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

48-23-6  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

40-27-10  |  Home

6
Goaltending
J.J. Moser
GOALTENDER

J.J. Moser

#90 | Defense
@
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
J.J. Moser None-None -- -- --
Linus Ullmark None-None 2.00 0.933 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.00
-- Save % 0.933
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
SENATORS
100%
LIGHTNING --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Senators Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

OTT By 1 goal

12.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
4
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Senators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Senators (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 TB @ OTT 2 - 6
Mar 28, 2026 OTT @ TB 2 - 4
Oct 9, 2025 OTT @ TB 5 - 4
Apr 3, 2025 TB @ OTT 1 - 2
Feb 6, 2025 OTT @ TB 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.9% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Ottawa: 24.3
Power Play % (L5) +32.0%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs Tampa Bay: 31.5%
Takeaways (L5) +21.0% more
Ottawa: 5.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.1
Hits (L5) +11.2% more
Ottawa: 24.7 vs Tampa Bay: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 2
OTT Score 2.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TB
OTT
TB
ML
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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