Home / NHL Projections NHL / Golden Knights @ Canucks VGK @ VAN

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

35-26-16  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Rogers Arena
View Odds Details →

VANCOUVER

CANUCKSVAN

22-46-8  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Carter Hart
GOALTENDER

Carter Hart

#79 | Goaltender
@
Nikita Tolopilo
GOALTENDER

Nikita Tolopilo

#60 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Carter Hart None-None 1.00 0.909 --
Nikita Tolopilo None-None 2.06 0.931 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 2.06
0.909 Save % Ldr 0.931
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
CANUCKS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
CANUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VANCOUVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vancouver)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 CanucksVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

30.9%

Canucks Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VAN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VGK By 1 goal

12.1%

VGK By 2-3 goals

9.3%

VAN By 1 goal

19.7%

VAN By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
VEGAS
4
VANCOUVER
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
4
VANCOUVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canucks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canucks Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canucks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canucks (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 VGK @ VAN 3 - 2
Apr 7, 2026 VGK @ VAN 2 - 1
Mar 30, 2026 VAN @ VGK 2 - 4
Feb 4, 2026 VAN @ VGK 2 - 5
Apr 16, 2025 VGK @ VAN 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +22.3% more
Vegas: 5.4 vs Vancouver: 4.2
Power Play % (L5) +20.6%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Vancouver: 2.0%
Blocked Shots (L5) +10.9% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Vancouver: 12.9
Faceoff % (L5) +4.1%
Vegas: 53.3% vs Vancouver: 49.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 3.0 2
VAN Score 4.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
41%MONEY59%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
VGK
VAN
VGK
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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