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DETROIT

PISTONSDET

57-21  |  Road

107
FINAL
Mon, Apr 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

42-36  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
📊
MAGIC
0%
PISTONS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Orlando)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

18.4%

Magic Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

DET By 1-7 points

12.2%

DET By 8-14 points

4.0%

ORL By 1-7 points

24.3%

ORL By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
110
DETROIT
119
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
105
DETROIT
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Magic Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Magic (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Magic (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o222.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim u222.5 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 ORL @ DET 94 - 116
May 1, 2026 DET @ ORL 93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026 ORL @ DET 109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026 DET @ ORL 88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026 DET @ ORL 105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Orlando: 16.7 vs Detroit: 15.3
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Orlando: 78.3% vs Detroit: 76.0%
Blocks (L5) +46.2% more
Detroit: 5.7 vs Orlando: 3.1
Steals (L5) +23.4% more
Detroit: 9.8 vs Orlando: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 110.0 107
ORL Score 119.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 42.4 42.0 / 33.0
Assists 28.1 / 31.4 28.0 / 32.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.7 9.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 50.2 51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 76.0 75.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 45.8 / 44.4 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.5 / 9.8 16.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 15.3 15.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DET
ORL
DET
ML
61% 65-42
55% 64-53
56% 51-40
49% 47-49
ATS
64% 68-38-1
53% 60-54-3
56% 51-40
49% 47-49
TTL
57% 61-46
60% 70-46-1
100% 91-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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