CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
4-5 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
4-5 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Conforto
#20 | Designated Hitter@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Conforto | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.25
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
RAYS
0%
CUBS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
CHC @ TB
6 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
CHC @ TB
9 - 2
Apr 6, 2026
CHC @ TB
4 - 6
Sep 14, 2025
TB @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2025
TB @ CHC
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.374
OPS
▲
.728
0
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16900.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+404.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+86.3% more
Tampa Bay: 13.2
vs
Chicago: 7.1
Errors (L5)
+74.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.2
vs
Chicago: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.0
4
TB Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 5.1
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 7.7
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 7.1
20.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.4
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHC
TB
CHC
ML
58%
95-68
58%
93-68
58%
95-68
51%
82-79
ATS
60%
97-66
61%
97-63-1
55%
90-73
47%
75-85-1
TTL
47%
73-81-9
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-75-10
46%
72-83-6
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