BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
3-6 | Road
2
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
4-5 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Erick Fedde
#47 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Erick Fedde | None-None | 4.09 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
4.09
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
WHITE SOX
0%
ORIOLES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
CHW @ BAL
1 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
CHW @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
CHW @ BAL
8 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
BAL @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 7, 2026
BAL @ CHW
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Chicago
CHW
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.711
OPS
▲
.826
199
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.5% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Chicago: 0.7
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+19.0% more
Chicago: 0.7
vs
Baltimore: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+11.5%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.0
2
CHW Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.1
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 6.6
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 11.3
4.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.9
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BAL
CHW
BAL
ML
48%
81-87
53%
83-73
56%
94-74
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
99-69
61%
95-60-1
55%
93-75
57%
90-68-1
TTL
58%
97-69-2
54%
81-70-5
51%
85-81-2
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox