PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
5-4 | Road
6
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
3-7 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Kilian
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Houser
#12 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Kilian | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Adrian Houser | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
3.97
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
GIANTS
100%
PHILLIES
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
SF By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco
2
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
SF @ PHI
2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SF @ PHI
0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026
PHI @ SF
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
San Francisco
SF
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.13
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.306
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
▲
OPS
.706
3
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+80.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.2
vs
San Francisco: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+37.6% more
Philadelphia: 13.6
vs
San Francisco: 8.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.9% more
Philadelphia: 10.9
vs
San Francisco: 8.1
Hits (L5)
+18.0% more
Philadelphia: 7.9
vs
San Francisco: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.0
6
SF Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 7.9
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 10.9
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
8.5 / 13.6
15.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.2
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PHI
SF
PHI
ML
49%
79-81
59%
97-67
53%
85-75
49%
80-84
ATS
62%
100-60
65%
107-57
52%
83-77
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
82-68-10
57%
88-67-9
46%
68-81-11
51%
78-76-9
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