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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

4-5  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Apr 6 • 6:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

6-4  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
Tim Herrin None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
GUARDIANS
0%
ROYALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Guardians Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
KANSAS CITY
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718 ▲
OPS
.696
170 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +56.5% more
Kansas City: 5.8 vs Cleveland: 2.5
Hits (L5) +45.7% more
Kansas City: 8.7 vs Cleveland: 4.7
Total Bases (L5) +33.6% more
Kansas City: 12.7 vs Cleveland: 8.4
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Kansas City: 0.3 vs Cleveland: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 2.0 4
CLE Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 4.7 / 8.7 4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 10.6 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 8.4 / 12.7 11.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.5 / 5.8 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54% 87-75
55% 89-72
49% 80-83
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 93-69
57% 91-70
58% 95-68
58% 93-67
TTL
56% 89-71-2
58% 90-64-7
44% 70-90-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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