SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
4-5 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
6-3 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
German Marquez
#33 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Marquez | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 1.42 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 1.42
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
PIRATES
0%
PADRES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PIT @ SD
0 - 3
Aug 25, 2026
PIT @ SD
1 - 0
Aug 24, 2026
PIT @ SD
3 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
SD @ PIT
8 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
SD @ PIT
1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.925
▲
OPS
.734
4
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4550.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+39.4% more
Pittsburgh: 3.7
vs
San Diego: 2.6
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2
vs
San Diego: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.2% more
Pittsburgh: 10.8
vs
San Diego: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.0
5
PIT Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.3
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 9.4
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 13.6
8.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.6
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
SD
PIT
SD
ML
52%
82-77
51%
85-83
52%
85-78
51%
85-82
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
91-77
50%
81-82
55%
92-75
TTL
47%
72-81-6
51%
82-80-6
50%
79-78-6
54%
86-74-6
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