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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

48-22-6  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Apr 6 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

46-23-8  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.10 0.897 --
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 2.00 0.920 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.10 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.897 Save % Ldr 0.920
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
SABRES
100%
LIGHTNING --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Sabres Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 TB @ BUF 2 - 4
Mar 8, 2026 TB @ BUF 7 - 8
Feb 28, 2026 BUF @ TB 6 - 2
Feb 3, 2026 BUF @ TB 3 - 4
Apr 13, 2025 BUF @ TB 4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +18.1% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Buffalo: 27.2
Power Play % (L5) +5.2%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Buffalo: 26.3%
Faceoff % (L5) +1.7%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Hits (L5) +10.8% more
Buffalo: 21.4 vs Tampa Bay: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 2
BUF Score 2.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
63%MONEY37%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
TB
BUF
TB
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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