PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
40-38 | Road
132
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
50-28 | Home
137
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
POR By 1-7 points
27.2%
POR By 8-14 points
23.0%
DEN By 1-7 points
18.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
108
PORTLAND
Denver
103
DENVER
Simulated Score
Portland
105
PORTLAND
Denver
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 6, 2026
POR @ DEN
132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026
POR @ DEN
112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026
DEN @ POR
157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025
DEN @ POR
107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025
DEN @ POR
109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+39.6% more
Portland: 17.4
vs
Denver: 10.5
Blocks (L5)
+37.2% more
Portland: 6.9
vs
Denver: 4.3
Steals (L5)
+29.1% more
Portland: 9.2
vs
Denver: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+32.1% more
Denver: 32.7
vs
Portland: 24.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
108.0
132
DEN Score
103.0
137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.4 / 35.8
32.0 / 48.0
Assists
32.7 / 24.8
37.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.3 / 6.9
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 46.5
51.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
84.6 / 79.9
88.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
46.3 / 47.4
45.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.5 / 9.2
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 17.4
12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
POR
DEN
POR
ML
54%
57-48
53%
56-49
55%
47-39
55%
49-40
ATS
63%
65-38-2
62%
65-39-1
55%
47-39
55%
49-40
TTL
54%
56-48-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
89-0
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